[blog.rayfoo] Infosec, DFIR, tech geekery, thoughts and whatnot

24Jul/106

How a visit to the pub with friends ends up in a sleepless night

Did you know that humans are naturally bad at sensing probability?

Dropped by a pub with some (good) friends for a short while of drinks and games, where this game was introduced for the first time to me.  It's called the "Guessing Game", where basically each participant has a cup of five dice each, and after shaking it, looks at his/her own dice combination, comes up with guesses on how many dice there are at least of a certain number (1-6).  Forfeits are dealt accordingly to those who were found to have guessed wrongly, or have wrongly tried to catch someone else's guess.

The first thing my mind came to was how to win this game?  And being a maths geek it certainly didn't help when the game involved dice. :D Nonetheless I hope I still get invited to go out (drinking or otherwise) with them. :S

(If you do not wish to see how a good social game is ruined/analyzed to death by a geek, you should stop reading here.  And I am not responsible for your shunning if you use this eventually for your "unfair" advantage :) )